The 2017 NA & EU LCS Summer Split kicks off this week, which means you only have a few days left to draft your winning Fantasy LCS roster. The Blitz team has always been pretty competitive over our internal fantasy league… What can we say? The allure of season-long trash talk is just too strong.
To prep for this split’s games, we’ve put together a short guide to help you beat your friends.
#1 Rule: Pick players on winning teams (aka teams at the top)
League is a game that is heavily win-biased in terms of stats. Simply put, players on teams that win more games, get more points. Their individual mechanics and aggressiveness come second.
Based on NA LCS Spring aggregate data, winners on average earn 11 more points per game than losers. For example, when mid laners win, the average points earned per won game is 23.8. When they lose, the average drops to 11.7. The standard deviation for both averages is around 7, which is pretty high. But the key here is that the difference between the two is still is much greater (12)!
Expected top teams for this split, based on last split's records & MSI:
- NA: TSM, C9, P1
- EU: G2, Misfits, UoL, H2K
Players with Baggage (Be wary of picking them)
These players may be swapped out during the week or even mid-series. In the worst case, you could get 0 points for them for the week.
- Cloud9: Impact & Ray (6-man roster)
- Immortals: Olleh & Stunt (Unconfirmed)
- Dignitas: Xpecial & Big, Shrimp & Chaser (7-man roster)
- EnVyUs: Nisqy & Pirean (6-man roster)
These players are confirmed to miss at least 1 week of games:
- G2: Expect & Trick (won’t be playing Week 1 of EU LCS)
EU picks are really good if the player is from the top 2 teams of his group
Otherwise, they're not worth the risk. EU teams only playing 1 match in a given week will now have that match’s points doubled. This creates a boom or bust effect--if the team loses and gets low points, you don’t get a 2nd match for redemption: your best outcome is 2x that loss’s points. If they win, however, you get 2x the winning points! To optimize for the upside, pick players from top teams like G2 and UOL.
In fact, 6 of the top 10 fantasy points earners (in terms of average per game) were from Europe last split! All from UOL, G2, Misfits, and H2K.
Draft Priorities (main roster)
Roles ordered from highest to lowest average points earned in winning games:
- Mid (23.9), ADC (22.2), Jungle (22.1), Top (20.5), Support (19.4), Team (18.3)
If you’re in a 4-player fantasy league:
- Mid > ADC > Jungle > Top > Support or Team
A 6-player league:
- Mid > ADC > Jungle > Team or Top > Support
An 8-player league:
- Team > Mid > ADC > Jungle > Top > Support
Why is Team the highest priority in leagues of 8?
- The difference in Team points between a winning team and a losing team is huge. Based on last split’s NA LCS data, you’re looking at over +12 points per game (18.3 vs 6)!
- It’s not as important in leagues of 4 or 6 because the standard deviation of points across winning teams is low (~3 points), and there are enough top teams to go around in a smaller fantasy league (ex: top 2 NA, top 2 in each EU LCS group).
Why are Top and Support last?
Top and Support are generally low-priority because they typically earn the least points of the bunch, and the point difference between each player is much smaller.
For Flex Pick: Mid or ADC > Jungle
It’s okay to pick your Flex early. When you do, see who’s available in the Mid or ADC roles, and pick the player on the team that’s expected to perform the best.
Decision-making flow, per round of picks
- Which teams do I expect to have the best win/loss record?
- Which roles are left to pick on those teams?
- Which roles do I need?
- Pick in the order of draft priorities listed above.
Blitz Player Rankings
We looked at overall win record (win % last split) and consistency of play (standard deviation of points earned in a win vs. a loss). This isn’t going to be perfect, but should be a good start.
But what about Player X? When he wins, he crushes it!
There are definitely sleeper picks out there. For example, Akaadian was one of the highest scorers whenever Echo Fox won last split (26 pts; average winning jungler sits at 22 pts). But Echo Fox simply lost too many games throughout the split, which dragged down his head-to-head points. If you believe in a specific player or have some insider knowledge of scripted results, go for it! (And DM me in private so I can win the Blitz league).
Shameless plug: Blitz Esports mobile app w/ Fantasy Points
We display live match stats in real-time (you can watch the seconds tick) and track changes in Fantasy LCS points for you as games happen.
Plug 2: Check out /r/FantasyLCS
The FantasyLCS subreddit is a great community for getting tips, strategies, and help! It's mostly people LFG right now, but once split starts, it gets pretty active!
Article cover from LoL Esports.